FPL captain picks: gameweek 6
Deadline:
The ten players with the most expected points this gameweek, before doubling for the armband. Pick the one you own with the highest number, and look at the chance to start before the deadline.
| # | Player | Team | Fixture | Expected points | Owned | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haaland | MCI | LIV (A) | 7.1 | 73.9% | £15.6m |
| 2 | B.Fernandes | MUN | TOT (H) | 6.6 | 38.4% | £11.9m |
| 3 | Groß | BHA | SUN (A) | 6.3 | 29.5% | £5.9m |
| 4 | Mbeumo | MUN | TOT (H) | 6.3 | 20.5% | £7.9m |
| 5 | Gibbs-White | NFO | CRY (A) | 6.3 | 15.7% | £8.0m |
| 6 | Saka | ARS | LEE (H) | 6.1 | 14% | £9.5m |
| 7 | E.Le Fée | SUN | BHA (H) | 5.5 | 3.3% | £5.7m |
| 8 | Tarkowski | EVE | HUL (A) | 5.4 | 16.7% | £6.2m |
| 9 | Tavernier | BOU | CHE (A) | 5.4 | 6.8% | £6.1m |
| 10 | Schade | BRE | AVL (A) | 5.2 | 11.9% | £6.2m |
Why each one
- Haaland (MCI, forward): 0.77 expected goals, 98% chance to start, strong bonus record.
- B.Fernandes (MUN, midfielder): 0.55 expected goals, 0.35 expected assists, 98% chance to start, strong bonus record.
- Groß (BHA, midfielder): 0.37 expected goals, 0.33 expected assists, 98% chance to start, strong bonus record.
- Mbeumo (MUN, midfielder): 0.59 expected goals, 0.22 expected assists, 98% chance to start, strong bonus record.
- Gibbs-White (NFO, midfielder): 0.33 expected goals, 0.42 expected assists, 98% chance to start, strong bonus record.
- Saka (ARS, midfielder): 0.53 expected goals, 0.22 expected assists, 98% chance to start, strong bonus record.
- E.Le Fée (SUN, midfielder): 0.44 expected goals, 0.36 expected assists, 98% chance to start.
- Tarkowski (EVE, defender): 0.03 expected goals, 27% clean-sheet chance, 98% chance to start, strong bonus record.
- Tavernier (BOU, midfielder): 0.31 expected goals, 0.22 expected assists, 98% chance to start, strong bonus record.
- Schade (BRE, midfielder): 0.26 expected goals, 0.17 expected assists, 98% chance to start, strong bonus record.
Differential captains
Owned by fewer than 10% of managers: a good result here gains ground on most rivals.
| # | Player | Team | Fixture | Expected points | Owned | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | E.Le Fée | SUN | BHA (H) | 5.5 | 3.3% | £5.7m |
| 2 | Tavernier | BOU | CHE (A) | 5.4 | 6.8% | £6.1m |
| 3 | Davis | IPS | FUL (H) | 5.1 | 7% | £4.0m |
| 4 | Thomas | COV | NEW (H) | 5.1 | 8.5% | £4.0m |
| 5 | Barry | EVE | HUL (A) | 4.5 | 8.3% | £5.7m |
About these numbers
Expected points come from our own model (team strength from recent results, each player’s goal and assist rates per 90 minutes, his chance of starting and of playing 60 minutes, clean sheets and bonus). Tested on every gameweek of 2024/25 and 2025/26 using only the data available before each deadline, it ranked players closer to their real scores than FPL’s own projection (correlation 0.57 against 0.49), and its top pick each week averaged 11 points against 5.9 for FPL’s.
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